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Cancer by the Numbers 3 of 4: Risk



I've done 2 other "Cancer by the Numbers" posts, the first was about blood counts, the second about my grocery bill.  Why am I doing a post on risk? First it is to share general information but it is also to let my friends and family have some understanding of where I am now that I've completed treatment. My standard answer to what's happening is that I've completed my last treatment (radiation), and now I wait. This post is about understanding the likelihood of me waiting in vain (desired outcome).


Risk of getting cancer.

  • The chance of a woman having invasive breast cancer some time during her life is a little less 1 in 8.  (1)
  • The chance of dying from breast cancer is about 1 in 36 and death rates are declining. (1)

What increases your chances of getting cancer?
  • Being female. It is 100 times more common for females than for males (1). This means that my nieces have a higher risk for breast cancer than my sons do, even though the hereditary link may be stronger for my sons than my nieces - mother and grandmother vs aunt and grandmother.
  • Having a close blood relative with cancer. The fact that my mom had breast cancer doubled my risk for getting the disease. But bear in mind that about 85% of those diagnosed with breast cancer have no family history. (1)
  • Factors you cannot change. Age, genetics (e.g. BRCA mutation), etc.
  • Other factors may also impact risk. Use of hormone therapy, age of having children, being overweight, etc.

Risk of Recurrence.

Hard to generalise since the stage, grade and treatment all impact recurrence rates. My interpretation is a 7%-14% chance of recurrence within 5 years, and 9%-20% within 10 years, depending on various factors. (1)

 
My survival numbers.
  • Everyone's cancer is different. My chances are based on my personal history, stage, type of cancer, tool used for assessment, etc.
  • Chance of dying of cancer without treatment, 67%.  With the surgery and chemo, the chance of me dying within 10 years go down to about 24%, which means that I have a 76%-ish chance of surviving past 10 years!
  • Radiation also helps, however not with systemic risk reduction, but with reducing local recurrence. Radiation reduced my risk of local recurrence to 5%-9%
  • For hormone positive breast cancer, the numbers are slightly more favourable (45% down to 17% with hormone therapy, chemo and surgery).
And finally, regarding risk, I came across one article that suggested that women with a family history of breast cancer overestimate their risk for contracting the disease. Hmmm...I think that is fine and dandy for a medical professional or statistician to make that pronouncement, but, what's that cliche again? Only the paranoid survive?

(1) American Cancer Society

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